How often Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow

Each people gather in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania to see whether or not winter will hang on or we’ll see an early arrival of spring.

Should Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow the United States can expect six weeks more of winter, but if he doesn’t then we can expect warmer temperatures.

Since 1887, Phil predicted more winter 105 times, an early spring 20 times, and no record 10 times.

We may want to Phil’s forecast with a grain of salt. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, over the past 10 years, Phil has gotten the forecast right on average 40% of the time.

The following table breaks down the last 17 years of Phil’s predictions and how accurate he was.

Year	Saw Shadow?	Was Phil Right?
2022	Yes	No
2021	Yes	No
2020	No	Yes
2019	No	No
2018	Yes	No
2017	Yes	No
2016	No	Yes
2015	Yes	No
2014	Yes	Yes
2013	No	Yes
2012	Yes	No
2011	No	Yes
2010	Yes	No
2009	Yes	No
2008	Yes	Yes
2007	No	No
2006	Yes	No